JNPT is already losing its market share to Gujrat ports, where as IRlys have unrealistically (?) expected a very bullish growth for JNPT and started the double lined Western Dedicate freight corridor from JNPT-Dadri (near Delhi). Shall the traffic in 2019 (when DFC is commissioned) from JNPT justify huge costs incurred in the DOUBLE LINE DFC?
It seems that with about similar investment, four single lined dedicated freight corridors could have been taken at the same time with provision for doubling when the freight traffic increase in next 5/10 or 15 years. SECR, ECoR, SER combined carries about 45% of total freight traffic of Indian Railways. Trunk lines of these zones (1500-2000 km length) which are carrying more freight traffic than routes...
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represented by the DFCs under construction, could have been served by DFC for better national interest (within same expenditure). This could have ensured better utilization/revenues of DFC and more benefit to Indian Economy.
We planned the DFCs in 2005-6 when Indian economy and world economy was in unprecedented boom. Expecting the same rate of growth in economy for very long, we had bullish predictions for growth in freight traffic for next 15 to 20 years on two routes (Delhi-JNPT, Delhi-Sonnagar-Kolkata) and directly planed to go for double line DFCs on both routes. In the process the routes which are already carrying much more freight traffic (SECR,ECoR,SER) than these routes are totally left behind. The economic boom has subsided during the planning and drawing stage, even before the construction of DFC started. After DFCs are complete, the traffic offered shall be much lesser than the quantum expected with nonstop economic boom. The new Double line DFC shall lie underutilized one hand, crying for more freight offering in order to survive financially. On the other hand the most overworked freight lines shall continue crying for relief from freight overburden they had been carrying since long. There will definitely be over capacity in some area and under capacity in other. National economy shall suffer by way of suboptimal logistics attained after huge investment.
A retired Rly Board member has very rightly said in one of his articles that decisions in IR are taken on gut feeling rather than scientific study of data & market surveys. Whatever suboptimal outcome achieved is then any how managed. IRlys could any get away with it, thanks to monopoly enjoyed.
Historically NDLS-HWH, NDLS-BCT, NDLS-MAS are no.1,2,3 routes of IR and they remain so today and probably so forever. For passenger traffic the above 3 are really top, but when it comes to freight they are not the toppers esp. Del-MAS. Here the leaders are the SECR, ECoR, SER trunklines. Had the freight been prime concern, the best option was to cover these freight zones also in the first phase of DFC by resorting to single line instead of double line. While planning for DFCs probably more emphasis was laid on releasing extra capacities, in order to facilitate more/ faster passenger trains on the 2 premier passenger routes, rather than to relieve the premier freight routes of the country. Also private investment for a new dedicated passenger train is difficult to come.