Wait for half an hour after tatkal bookings open, check your status around 10.30 am. also check tatkal position at that time. there are 326 berths in tatkal quota. if enough seats remained in tatkal at 10.30 am and your status comes down to 100 or so, chances of confirmation is there. if there are not enough seats remain in tatkal or if there is waitlist after half an hour, go for tatkal. even 10-30 waitlist position in tatkal will be definitely confirmed.