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Blog Entry# 1937920
Posted: Jul 22 2016 (17:32)

1 Responses
Last Response: Jul 22 2016 (17:32)
Rail News
IR AffairsCR/Central  -  
Jul 22 2016 (14:48)   Retain reduce on Container Corp of India

For Better Managed Indian Railways~   948 news posts
Entry# 1937920   News Entry# 274482         Tags   Past Edits
The latest data from the government highlights that India’s rail container volumes fell by 7.5% y/y in June 2016 after having recovered in April (+4.0% y/y) and May (+5.9% y/y). Domestic volumes during June fell by 16% y/y, while EXIM volumes fell by 5% y/y. Volume growth in FY16 was down 5.4% as well. Overall volumes in Q 1FY17 were up only 0.7% y/y, of which domestic volumes (17% share) were down 18% y/y, while EXIM volumes were up 6% y/y.
Lead distance for the rail container segment fell 5% y/y to 964 km in Q 1FY17. EXIM lead distance was down 5% y/y to 876km, while domestic lead grew by 2% to 1397km. Lead distance for the EXIM business is now
down c20% from peak in Jan 2011. JNPT’s market share loss to Gujarat-based ports has been the primary reason for the weakness in EXIM lead distance. This is likely to be reflected in lower realisations for rail container players like CCRI
We continue to value CCRI using a DCF model and an unchanged WACC of 12.8%. CCRI is currently trading at a 25.5x Sept 2017e PE, while our TP implies an 18.9x PE. Our unchanged target price implies downside of c26% to the current price and we retain our ‘reduce’ rating on the stock. A faster-than-expected macro recovery and improved visibility on the Dedicated Freight Corridor’s completion timeline.

Jul 22 2016 (17:32)
For Better Managed Indian Railways~   1933 blog posts
Re# 1937920-1            Tags   Past Edits
JNPT is already losing its market share to Gujrat ports, where as IRlys have unrealistically (?) expected a very bullish growth for JNPT and started the double lined Western Dedicate freight corridor from JNPT-Dadri (near Delhi). Shall the traffic in 2019 (when DFC is commissioned) from JNPT justify huge costs incurred in the DOUBLE LINE DFC?
It seems that with about similar investment, four single lined dedicated freight corridors could have been taken at the same time with provision for doubling when the freight traffic increase in next 5/10 or 15 years. SECR, ECoR, SER combined carries about 45% of total freight traffic of Indian Railways. Trunk lines of these zones (1500-2000 km length) which are carrying more freight traffic than routes
represented by the DFCs under construction, could have been served by DFC for better national interest (within same expenditure). This could have ensured better utilization/revenues of DFC and more benefit to Indian Economy.
We planned the DFCs in 2005-6 when Indian economy and world economy was in unprecedented boom. Expecting the same rate of growth in economy for very long, we had bullish predictions for growth in freight traffic for next 15 to 20 years on two routes (Delhi-JNPT, Delhi-Sonnagar-Kolkata) and directly planed to go for double line DFCs on both routes. In the process the routes which are already carrying much more freight traffic (SECR,ECoR,SER) than these routes are totally left behind. The economic boom has subsided during the planning and drawing stage, even before the construction of DFC started. After DFCs are complete, the traffic offered shall be much lesser than the quantum expected with nonstop economic boom. The new Double line DFC shall lie underutilized one hand, crying for more freight offering in order to survive financially. On the other hand the most overworked freight lines shall continue crying for relief from freight overburden they had been carrying since long. There will definitely be over capacity in some area and under capacity in other. National economy shall suffer by way of suboptimal logistics attained after huge investment.
A retired Rly Board member has very rightly said in one of his articles that decisions in IR are taken on gut feeling rather than scientific study of data & market surveys. Whatever suboptimal outcome achieved is then any how managed. IRlys could any get away with it, thanks to monopoly enjoyed.
Historically NDLS-HWH, NDLS-BCT, NDLS-MAS are no.1,2,3 routes of IR and they remain so today and probably so forever. For passenger traffic the above 3 are really top, but when it comes to freight they are not the toppers esp. Del-MAS. Here the leaders are the SECR, ECoR, SER trunklines. Had the freight been prime concern, the best option was to cover these freight zones also in the first phase of DFC by resorting to single line instead of double line. While planning for DFCs probably more emphasis was laid on releasing extra capacities, in order to facilitate more/ faster passenger trains on the 2 premier passenger routes, rather than to relieve the premier freight routes of the country. Also private investment for a new dedicated passenger train is difficult to come.

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