Maglev technology is much more costlier than bullet train technology. Japan with much higher population density and much more paying capacity of its citizens is struggling to implement the maglev technology it developed more than a decade back, in its own country. Planned project is from Tokyo (population 3.8 crores, GDP 1500 Bi$), its number 1 metro to Osaka (population 2 crores,GDP 420Bi$), no. 2 metro. The Tokyo-Osaka 500 kms Maglev project shall be implemented upto Nagoya (350kms by 2027) and to Osaka (500 kms by 2045). How will be the feasibility in India between Mumbai (2.2 crores, GDP with PPP119Bi$) and Ahmedabad (0.7crores GDP with PPP49Bi$) is anybody’s guess.
If the step is taken due to stiff opposition to privatization, then...
more... the very foundation of the project is weak. Major expenditure today for IRlys are salary+pension-68%, Fuel -18% & Other smaller heads like stores, dividend reserve, depreciation reserve, capital fund, development fund, debt raising fund etc .
Major cost reduction has been achieved in cost of electricity & diesel procurement in last couple of years and not much further scope of cost reduction is there. The axle loads, number of coaches/ wagons per train has also been increased since last 10 years, so there is limited scope to further increase the volume/ productivity to increase the revenue.
The biggest expenditure head i.e. the manpower cost still remain untouched due to stiff opposition to privatization! This is rising at astronomical pace. This is exactly the achilles heel of Indian Railways as a financial entity. It is not possible for IRlys to sustain spending 68% of total revenue towards salary & pension.
Seventh pay commission has recommended to stop the practice of setting up pay commission and have recommended to give salary & perks based on performance, but that part has not been accepted yet. With implementation of 7th pay commission, the salary & pension part of total expenditure jumped by 36% from a figure of 50% to 68% and after 5 yrs (i.e. 8th pay commission), it may further increase to 90%! Where from the fund necessary to procure & maintain rakes, tracks, fuel etc. shall come? ? Bankruptcy stares at IR!!!,
As per the above Maglev plan, the private sector shall be involved in investing, constructing, operating, maintaining, repairing, deciding fares, etc. Cos will be free for charging for add on facilities like food, wifi, movies etc which are negligible as compared to total investment required. Following are the thought provoking salient points:
(1) Why will Pvt sector want IRlys to interfere in their maglev trains knowing that the later would be interested in protecting the interest of the competing conventional trains fully owned by it?? For acceptability to pvt. sector, the regulator should be a third entity like commissioner of safety or other non IRly entity so as to give the pvt player a level playing field with IRlys. The image of IRlys in case of privatisation of container movement is far from good in the eyes of pvt, sector. Foreign company may be asked/allowed to make consortium with Indian companies also.
(2) The maglev project can survive only if it is allowed to reap the additional benefits through commercial exploitation of stations, land near stations, creation of smart cities along the Maglev route and so on. There are no chances of recovering even a significant fraction of the operational and capital expenditure only through ticket fares and the so called addons.
(3) The plan in current format – impossible.
Even with grant of full rights to non fare sources of revenue – possible but "bahut door ki kaudi"
(4) Best way for Maglev trains to find ways to India, as of now, is the indigenous development & implementation of cost effective Maglev technology, as has been done in the field of satellite launching rocket technology.
