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News Entry# 413379
Jul 08 (01:44) Monsoon in east, northeast may trigger floods (www.hindustantimes.com)
*climate-weather
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News Entry# 413379  Blog Entry# 4664294   
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Monsoon rains over the country is 13% excess, It’s 26% excess over central India; 8% excess over east and northeast India; 11% excess over south peninsula; and 5% deficient over northwest India.

Intense monsoon rains are expected to begin again in east and northeast India from July 8, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday. Many parts of Assam and Bihar have already been impacted by flooding because of extreme rains in these regions from June 29 to July 1.
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On Monday, the weather office issued an orange category warning for eastern and north-eastern states from July 8 to 10 after forecasts of thunderstorms, lightning and extremely heavy rains.An orange category warning implies that authorities should be prepared for emergencies or rain related disasters.

The monsoon trough at mean sea level lies to south of its normal position. “It is very likely to shift northwards towards the foothills of Himalayas from July 9 onwards. High convergence of south-westerly-southerly winds from Bay of Bengal at lower tropospheric levels very likely over northeast and east India from July 9 onwards. Under its influence, widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls very likely over Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar and east Uttar Pradesh on July 9 and 10,” IMD said in a statement on Monday.

Extremely heavy rain (≥ 20 cm) is also likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim from July 9 to 12. Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura are likely to receive very heavy rains from July 9 to 12.

“The normal position of the monsoon trough is between Ganganagar in Rajasthan to Bay of Bengal. But through the monsoon months the trough keeps shifting or oscillating. Even now the trough is slightly south of its normal position passing along Gujarat and over Jharkhand. We are expecting the trough to shift northwards towards the Himalayan foothills in the next few days. Moist winds along with orography (topography of mountains) can bring extreme rains in east and northeast India. Many parts of the region were already flooding because the monsoon trough had shifted northwards around June 30. If the rivers are swollen, they can flood again,” explained K Sathi Devi, head, national weather forecasting centre.

Meanwhile, under the influence of the well-marked low-pressure area over Saurashtra and its neighbourhood, widespread rainfall activity is likely over Gujarat during the next two days. Extremely heavy rain is also very likely over Saurashtra and Kutch during the next 48 hours. IMD has issued a red category warning for July 6 and 7, which implies that local authorities are supposed to take action against disasters caused by heavy rain.

Moderate to intense thunderstorm and lightning is expected over Madhya Pradesh, south Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and north coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next 12 hours.

Monsoon rains over the country is 13% excess, It’s 26% excess over central India; 8% excess over east and northeast India; 11% excess over south peninsula; and 5% deficient over northwest India.
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