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Blog Posts by kiranhappy
Page#    11 Blog Entries  next>>
  
Predictions: 52
confirm: 52
rac: 0
wl: 0
Journey: Fri Oct 09, 2015 @ 20:00
Class: AC 2-tier - 2A   |   Tot Seats: Avbl 65   |   Charting: < 16:15
Travel: SBC/KSR Bengaluru City Junction (Bangalore)   to   AWY/Aluva (Alwaye)   |   611 km / 935 km
16526/Island Express (PT)
Entry# 1595347

Posted by: kiranhappy   19 blog posts   35 correct pred (66% accurate)
PNR: 462-xxxxxxx (E-Ticket)   |   Similar PNRs
Posted Status as of: Sep 20 2015 (17:31)
Passenger 1: Waitlist# 23 (Booking Status: W/L 35,GNWL)
Passenger 2: Waitlist# 24 (Booking Status: W/L 36,GNWL)
Chart NOT Prepared

Please analyze this PNR, and predict the final Charting Status. Thanks.

Latest Status as of: Oct 09 2015 (17:01)
Passenger 1: HA1,11 [SL]/Coach Position:20 (Booking Status: W/L 35,GNWL)
Passenger 2: HA1,12 [SU]/Coach Position:20 (Booking Status: W/L 36,GNWL)
Chart PREPARED

1 posts - Sep 2015

3 posts - Thu Oct 08, 2015

  
1131 views
Oct 08 2015 (22:24)
kiranhappy   19 blog posts   35 correct pred (66% accurate)
Re# 1595347-5            Tags   Past Edits
Thanks for the reply. Agree that spam predictions will go up, if IRI puts incentive on earlier predictions. But, consider below 2 points.
1. As spam predictions go up, so do will go down, the spammers accuracy %. That will help the original poster differentiate good and bad predictors. I assume that is exactly the reason why IRI lists accuracy % in addition to number of correct predictions.
2. Currently people are playing with the IRI system. See that 27 out of 35 predictions on this PNR are made today when it
...
more...
is clearly a free hit. I suggest a button like "stop predictions now", available to the original owner poster and IRI admins(+revoke).
I assume fear of the "stop prediction" button might just push the predictor to predict early. Also fear of "poor accuracy %" will counter balance the spam predictions. May be I am taking IRI too seriously and should leave it as it is :)

  
1317 views
Oct 08 2015 (22:29)
CrUeL InTeNtIoNs*^~   4308 blog posts   44775 correct pred (92% accurate)
Re# 1595347-6            Tags   Past Edits
Not necessarily TRUE. I would beg to differ with you here.
Your PNR was posted on Sep 20 (5:31PM) so may be the members who saw this PNR posted may have predicted it and after that the PNR goes down and fresh PNR keeps coming. People are not in search of what you are calling a easy PNR. You will find most of the members come and predict the PNRs which is for the next day journey.
I will give you a simple Example - A status of RAC4 in say 2AC for
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more...
travel date in December may seem pretty easy PNR to predict but could stay RAC. Similary a high waitlisted ticket for the similar case could be predicted Waitlisted but can finally confirm owing to mass cancellation or extra coach augmentation.
Maximum predictions comes a 24-48 hrs before commencement of the journey. This is my individual though process and i would happy for any feedback.

  
1065 views
Oct 08 2015 (23:07)
kiranhappy   19 blog posts   35 correct pred (66% accurate)
Re# 1595347-7            Tags   Past Edits
Thanks for the reply. I agree with your points - especially the 2AC part. Still, 2 queries.
1. I agree that PNR goes down as fresh PNR keeps coming. But, I assume my post on Sep 21 (2:51 PM), should have bought the PNR up again. That bought no new inputs from none. Neither new PNR predictions nor new blog replies.
2. Why are people trying to predict next days PNR ? Is it because that is easy ? Eager to see instant results ? Or because IRI has an easy
...
more...
link for today's and tomorrow's PNR ? I feel it is bit of all. But, that doesn't serve one of purpose of PNR prediction - which is to help the owner poster plan alternate means - bus/air or other class train ticket ?
Feels like I am pushing a low importance topic in IRI. May be this point could be left for another day when some one comes with a better reasoning and demand.

  
1188 views
Oct 08 2015 (23:09)
sij   592 blog posts   9240 correct pred (93% accurate)
Re# 1595347-8            Tags   Past Edits
Hi KiranHappy,
I think there is a bit more to it.
Thanks for the reply
.
.
"1.
...
more...
As spam predictions go up, so do will go down, the spammers accuracy %. That will help the original poster differentiate good and bad predictors. I assume that is exactly the reason why IRI lists accuracy % in addition to number of correct predictions."
.
I think the percentages and stats matter to the active members of IRI.
If you have noticed, I have just registered here in Jan of this year.
I have posted PNRs even before that on IRI but it was mainly how many Greens and how many Reds for me at that time as a layman.
.
.
"2. Currently people are playing with the IRI system. See that 27 out of 35 predictions on this PNR are made today when it is clearly a free hit. I suggest a button like "stop predictions now", available to the original owner poster and IRI admins(+revoke). "
.
That is the whole point isn't it?
You should click on confirm if you actually think it is a free hit - That is being 100% sure.
And if I dont consider some thing a free hit means I am not 100% sure of it & if I am not 100% sure, I should not click it for the sake of it.
In cases like this particular PNR, not many predictions at the start gives the message that not many are sure this will confirm.
If it was my PNR, that is the message I want to get.
I want the predictors to click when they are 100% sure and not due to time constrains etc.
The more experienced predictors will have a wider range of "Free Hit" while new people like me will have a smaller range of "Free Hit"
Hence I will predict when I feel it is a "free hit" (i.e. when I am 100% sure of it) and a much more experienced person like ºMr Suspectº** will also predict when he feels it is a free hit (He is 100% sure of it). But for ºMr Suspectº** much more number of cases will be a free hit in comparison to me.
Now that is what I would want if it was my PNR. Maybe people like ºMr Suspectº** would click my PNR much earlier than people like me - But that is the point - Click if you yourself are 100% sure or as you have put it - When you feel it is a "free hit"
My free hit may be different from your free hit and so on .............
.
.
Regards,
Sij

1 posts are hidden.

  
1097 views
Oct 08 2015 (23:18)
Maniaco*^~   2366 blog posts   221060 correct pred (73% accurate)
Re# 1595347-10            Tags   Past Edits
Kiran, You have raised quite appropriate questions for the PNR prediction fraternity at IRI. Am seeing this from last couple of months as some predictors who have >90% accuracy will chose to predict PNR's with CKWL where PT is available and GNWL where CK/PT is available or RAC PNR's. Lot of people will actually ignore PNR's whose outcome no one is sure of, which are mainly PQWL/RLGN, Which actually defeats the whole purpose of PNR (Which was mentioned by you earlier). But then these are my views and I might also have been guilty of doing this many times.
Well, I chose to predict this PNR earlier knowing the cancellation rate in this train :-)

7 posts are hidden.
  
Predictions: 22
confirm: 10
rac: 0
wl: 12
Journey: Wed Aug 26, 2015 @ 20:28
Class: Sleeper - SL   |   Tot Seats: Avbl >168
Travel: AWY/Aluva (Alwaye)   to   KGQ/Kasaragod   |   349 km / 2251 km
16338/Ernakulam - Okha Express
Entry# 1573670

Posted by: kiranhappy   19 blog posts   35 correct pred (66% accurate)
PNR: 441-xxxxxxx (E-Ticket)   |   Similar PNRs
Posted Status as of: Aug 25 2015 (12:16)
Passenger 1: Waitlist# 12 (Booking Status: W/L 12,CK)
Chart NOT Prepared

Please analyze this PNR, and predict the final Charting Status. Thanks.

Latest Status as of: Aug 26 2015 (19:43)
Passenger 1: S8,22 [UB] (Booking Status: W/L 12,CK)
Chart PREPARED

3 posts - Wed Aug 26, 2015

  
1006 views
Aug 26 2015 (15:16)
sys tem~   8202 blog posts   75434 correct pred (76% accurate)
Re# 1573670-4            Tags   Past Edits
this one is tricky ..but PQWL 193 has more chances to confirm ...

1 posts are hidden.

  
1762 views
Aug 26 2015 (15:46)
sys tem~   8202 blog posts   75434 correct pred (76% accurate)
Re# 1573670-6            Tags   Past Edits
lucky you , this confirmed ..lets see how many seats remain vacant after chart preparation ...

  
1538 views
Aug 26 2015 (16:15)
kiranhappy   19 blog posts   35 correct pred (66% accurate)
Re# 1573670-7            Tags   Past Edits
I didn't knew we could see vacant seats after chart preparation. Thanks.

  
1458 views
Aug 26 2015 (18:27)
kiranhappy   19 blog posts   35 correct pred (66% accurate)
Re# 1573670-8            Tags   Past Edits
How do we see vacant seats after chart preparation ? The link click here is showing 0 for all trains.

  
1610 views
Aug 27 2015 (09:48)
sys tem~   8202 blog posts   75434 correct pred (76% accurate)
Re# 1573670-9            Tags   Past Edits
on official site current availability is shown only end to end ..if u want to see the seats availability to intermediate station then u need to go the normal way of finding trains for a particular day and then check seats availability ..if current seats are available then those seats will be shown ...
  
Predictions: 28
confirm: 5
rac: 0
wl: 23
Journey: Sat Nov 08, 2014 @ 13:15
Class: Sleeper - SL   |   Tot Seats: Avbl 175   |   Charting: < 10:00
Travel: ERS/Ernakulam Junction (South)   to   PNVL/Panvel Junction   |   1244 km / 2762 km
12617/Mangala Lakshadweep SF Express
Entry# 1269661

Posted by: kiranhappy   19 blog posts   35 correct pred (66% accurate)
PNR: 420-xxxxxxx    |   Similar PNRs
Posted Status as of: Nov 07 2014 (12:07)
Passenger 1: Waitlist# 8 (Booking Status: W/L 10,CK)
Chart NOT Prepared

Please analyze this PNR, and predict the final Charting Status. Thanks.

Latest Status as of: Nov 08 2014 (10:43)
Passenger 1: Can/Mod (Booking Status: W/L 10,CK)
Chart PREPARED

  
1173 views
Nov 08 2014 (12:24)
kiranhappy   19 blog posts   35 correct pred (66% accurate)
Re# 1269661-1            Tags   Past Edits
Train had 216 seats in tatkal quota and night before journey, ticket status was at WL# 5. And train further had 10 seats in Defence and 4 seats in Foreign tourist quota. Even not considering the defence/foreign quota's, I thought this was a safe ticket. Still masters like rdb predicted a WL ticket !. And for that I booked another tatkal for tomorrow and then cancelled the today's ticket.
It would be helpful, if some one could explain the reasoning behind WL ticket prediction ?
  
Predictions: 14
confirm: 2
rac: 12
wl: 0
Journey: Sun Apr 20, 2014 @ 14:40
Class: Sleeper - SL
Travel: ERS/Ernakulam Junction (South)   to   HAPA/Hapa   |   2075 km / 2414 km
19261/Kochuveli - Porbandar Weekly Express
Entry# 1060936
 

Posted by: kiranhappy   19 blog posts   35 correct pred (66% accurate)
PNR: 446-xxxxxxx    |   Similar PNRs
Posted Status as of: Apr 17 2014 (11:36)
Passenger 1: Waitlist# 21 (Booking Status: W/L 102,GNWL)
Chart NOT Prepared

Please analyze this PNR, and predict the final Charting Status. Thanks.

Latest Status as of: Apr 20 2014 (08:51)
Passenger 1: SE3,6 (Booking Status: W/L 102,GNWL)
Chart PREPARED

  
1257 views
Apr 20 2014 (08:46)
kiranhappy   19 blog posts   35 correct pred (66% accurate)
Re# 1060936-1            Tags   Past Edits
just 2

  
1279 views
Apr 20 2014 (14:27)
rdb*^   30555 blog posts   359526 correct pred (79% accurate)
Re# 1060936-2            Tags   Past Edits

1 posts are hidden.
  
Predictions: 55
confirm: 4
rac: 51
wl: 0
Journey: Sun Sep 22, 2013 @ 13:15
Class: Sleeper - SL   |   Tot Seats: Avbl 305   |   Charting: < 10:00
Travel: ERS/Ernakulam Junction (South)   to   JHS/Jhansi Junction   |   2358 km / 2762 km
12617/Mangala Lakshadweep SF Express
Entry# 855999
 

Posted by: kiranhappy   19 blog posts   35 correct pred (66% accurate)
PNR: 415-xxxxxxx    |   Similar PNRs
Posted Status as of: Sep 19 2013 (22:39)
Passenger 1: Waitlist# 20 (Booking Status: W/L 52,GNWL)
Chart NOT Prepared

Please analyze this PNR, and predict the final Charting Status. Thanks.

Latest Status as of: Sep 22 2013 (09:10)
Passenger 1: RS9 55 (Booking Status: W/L 52,GNWL)
Chart PREPARED

  
1319 views
Sep 19 2013 (22:46)
kiranhappy   19 blog posts   35 correct pred (66% accurate)
Re# 855999-1            Tags   Past Edits
I booked this ticket to travel from ERS to PNVL in 3A/SL class on 21-Sep or 22-Sep. Any better ticket suggestions ?
  
Predictions: 15
confirm: 5
rac: 9
wl: 1
Journey: Fri Jul 12, 2013 @ 20:45
Class: Sleeper - SL   |   Tot Seats: Avbl 470
Travel: MAS/Chennai Central   to   AFK/Angamaly for Kalady   |   671 km / 757 km
22639/Chennai - Alappuzha SF Express (PT)
Entry# 805372
 

Posted by: kiranhappy   19 blog posts   35 correct pred (66% accurate)
PNR: 425-xxxxxxx    |   Similar PNRs
Posted Status as of: Jul 11 2013 (15:38)
Passenger 1: Waitlist# 50 (Booking Status: W/L 173,GNWL)
Chart NOT Prepared

Please analyze this PNR, and predict the final Charting Status. Thanks.

Latest Status as of: Jul 15 2013 (12:58)
Passenger 1: Can/Mod (Booking Status: W/L 173,GNWL)
Chart PREPARED

  
878 views
Jul 15 2013 (12:49)
kiranhappy   19 blog posts   35 correct pred (66% accurate)
Re# 805372-1            Tags   Past Edits
  
Predictions: 23
confirm: 3
rac: 20
wl: 0
Journey: Tue Jun 11, 2013 @ 22:15
Class: AC 3-tier - 3A   |   Tot Seats: Avbl 79
Travel: MS/Chennai Egmore   to   KRR/Karur Junction   |   413 km / 985 km
16859/Chennai Egmore - Mangaluru Central Express
Entry# 774865
 

Posted by: kiranhappy   19 blog posts   35 correct pred (66% accurate)
PNR: 415-xxxxxxx    |   Similar PNRs
Posted Status as of: Jun 05 2013 (12:21)
Passenger 1: Waitlist# 15 (Booking Status: W/L 20,GNWL)
Chart NOT Prepared

Please analyze this PNR, and predict the final Charting Status. Thanks.

Latest Status as of: Jun 14 2013 (08:36)
Passenger 1: B1,63 (Booking Status: W/L 20,GNWL)
Chart PREPARED

  
1275 views
Jun 11 2013 (19:12)
kiranhappy   19 blog posts   35 correct pred (66% accurate)
Re# 774865-1            Tags   Past Edits
Direct from WL 3 to confirmed ticket. This train had three 3AC coaches which = 12 RAC seats. Went up by atleast 15 places in 3AC. Unbelievable.

  
1207 views
Jun 14 2013 (08:00)
kiranhappy   19 blog posts   35 correct pred (66% accurate)
Re# 774865-2            Tags   Past Edits
Train had only two 3 AC coaches.
  
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849 views
Jun 13 2013 (12:47)  
 

kiranhappy   19 blog posts   35 correct pred (66% accurate)
Entry# 782065            Tags   Past Edits
I am unable to edit my post in IRI /pnr which contained incorrect information. Train had only two 3 AC coaches. But IRI is not allowing me to edit my post.
  
Predictions: 15
confirm: 0
rac: 12
wl: 3
Journey: Fri Jun 07, 2013 @ 17:40
Class: AC 3-tier - 3A   |   Tot Seats: Avbl 116
Travel: KTYM/Kottayam   to   MAS/Chennai Central   |   757 km / 918 km
12624/Thiruvananthapuram Central - Chennai Central Mail
Entry# 775598
 

Posted by: kiranhappy   19 blog posts   35 correct pred (66% accurate)
PNR: 456-xxxxxxx    |   Similar PNRs
Posted Status as of: Jun 06 2013 (08:27)
Passenger 1: Waitlist# 20 (Booking Status: W/L 54,GNWL)
Chart NOT Prepared

Please analyze this PNR, and predict the final Charting Status. Thanks.

Latest Status as of: Jun 07 2013 (16:06)
Passenger 1: RB4 55 (Booking Status: W/L 54,GNWL)
Chart PREPARED

  
941 views
Jun 07 2013 (15:53)
kiranhappy   19 blog posts   35 correct pred (66% accurate)
Re# 775598-1            Tags   Past Edits
Kindly suggest chances of berth. I will board this train at 19:15. Till chart preparation at 12:30, the status was WL 4

  
952 views
Jun 07 2013 (16:00)
4πu¶am*^~   5664 blog posts   42281 correct pred (86% accurate)
Re# 775598-2            Tags   Past Edits
4th 3A Coach (B4), Seat number 55, Middle Berth.

  
942 views
Jun 07 2013 (16:00)
kiranhappy   19 blog posts   35 correct pred (66% accurate)
Re# 775598-3            Tags   Past Edits
My pnr 4251981045 with final status RB1 55 actually put me in SLB in train 12623. It should have been LB ( 55 mod 8 = 1 ). Confused on seating in 3AC .
But this post was for probability of berth confirmation.
  
Site-Related
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993 views
May 30 2013 (12:38)  
 

kiranhappy   19 blog posts   35 correct pred (66% accurate)
Entry# 769339            Tags   Past Edits
Charting time of train 12623 is showing as 12:15 which is not correct. Train starts at 19:45 and chart preparation usually happens at 17:30

  
966 views
May 30 2013 (12:42)
१२५५९ शिवगंगा सुपरफास्ट एक्सप्रेस १२५६०*^~   7511 blog posts   4545 correct pred (80% accurate)
Re# 769339-1            Tags   Past Edits
most of the chart preparation done before 4 hours only

  
910 views
May 30 2013 (13:46)
kiranhappy   19 blog posts   35 correct pred (66% accurate)
Re# 769339-2            Tags   Past Edits
Assuming chart preparation is 4 hours before, the IRI should have shown time as 15:45. 12:45 shown in IRI is plain wrong.
Also I regularly travel in that train and usually chart get prepared by 17:15. IRI should have shown either of 17:15 or 15:45 ( 4 hr gap).
Page#    11 Blog Entries  next>>

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