Pretty good chances of confirmation...If it gets stuck in WL its partial WL ticket, will not get cancelled but the passenger having WL cannot travel unless TTE allows to.
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Obtain certificate from the TTE /Conductor in case of PARTIALLY waitlisted e-ticket, This original certificate must be sent to GGM (IT), IRCTC Ltd.,Internet Ticketing Centre, IRCA Building, State Entry Road, New Delhi-110055 after filing on-line refund request for claiming refund.