IR UNDER THREAT
Since IR had enjoyed the absolute monopoly over the rail transport in the country since independence; it developed a habit of fixing the fares irrespective of on market conditions/ground realities.
Fares were based on the policies which were often based on the thinking of a few elite having limited knowledge of the logistics industry and/or market realities.
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a result, in spite of being most energy efficient and economical mode of transport, IR stagnated/deteriorated and gradually lost its ground in national logistics by losing its share ) to road/air sector.
Today IR is at cross roads, the options being either to go for change/ improvement and try to regain the lost traffic or continue to slide and get marginalized to the extent of irrelevance (in national economy) in future. Any decisions taken at this crucial moment have a great bearing on the future of IR.
THREAT FROM AIR TRAVEL
(1) Air travel is much faster than rail travel with incomparably small journey time (mostly 1-2hrs) as against up to 2/3 days by rail, boredom of journey is almost totally eliminated in air travel.
(2) Saving a day or two practically through air travel for 1000+km journey means that economic cost of air travel is actually lesser than rail travel, where as the common perception is that air travel is very costly. The day this fact is realised by more and more people, the air travel shall become more popular.
(3) Earlier much higher air fares (as compared to ac train travel) compelled middle/upper middle class people to go by ac class in train.
(4) Many middle class persons who have never travelled by air shall be able to break their mental block and start travelling by air once price differential is gone.
(5) Air travel having its own charm & glamour is gradually becoming a status symbol amongst a section of (upper) middle class people. Many have almost addiction to it i.e. many middle class people ready to pay higher for air travel than ac travel.
(6) Most of the stoppages/destinations served by premium trains already have airports. Only the residents of the cities not having airports will be ready to pay ac premium fare as they have to spend additional price & time to reach airport. IR should better think of giving stoppages to premium trains to cities having ac traffic potential but not directly served by airport.
(7) It may be noted that commercial flights are being operated from only 75 out of total 450 air strips in India. Things are going to be changed and an improved regional connectivity through inclusion of tier 2 & 3 cities is in offing. Govt. is planning to start commercial flights from another 50 airports (economy/ no frill ones) in next 3 years out of which 10 shall be operational within a year. A huge 7 fold increase in air travel from 7 crore/yr at present to 50 Cr/yr by 2027 is envisaged. Air fare shall be capped at Rs 2500/- for 1 hour air journey i.e. around 600km air distance. (land/rail distance is normally much higher as air distance is almost straight line distance).
Also, many non ac class pax may consider ac bus travel as better option than premium fare non ac train travel.